Packers. Raiders, Buccaneers predicted to go OVER; Lions, Cardinals, Giants expected to go UNDER
By Nolan Dalla
Betting on NFL season-win totals may be the very best bang for your buck in all of sports gambling.
Consider this: Making a wager prior to the season kickoff (on September 4th this year) gives bettors the chance to be in action over the course of many weeks, and perhaps even all the way until the end of the year. It’s like betting on 17 full weeks of action, yet costing only a single bet as an investment. Moreover, volatility is reduced since most teams will gravitate towards expectations.
While widely popular futures bets such as picking the Super Bowl winner tend to get far more public attention and attract greater betting volume, the far superior value and market predictability comes with wagering on team season-win totals.
The Basics of Season-Win Totals Betting
Each team’s win total is projected based on the regular season schedule of 17 games. We’re betting either “Over” or “Under” a prospective number of wins on a specific team. Oddsmakers post win totals at sportsbooks based on the perceived strengths and weaknesses of a team (and perhaps more important–how they think the public perceives that team). Other factors,including a team’s history, roster depth, coaching, and strength-of-schedule influences projections and betting market reactions.
Sometimes, the vig (which is the number attached to each season-win projection) is also important to weigh into a wager. A team might look like a smart bet at a specific “win total,” but then if the vig price is too high, it might not be as attractive. Conversely, some vig numbers are listed at “plus money,” meaning the winning ticket gets paid as higher than even money. Naturally, all of these factors must be taken into account.
Currently, season-win totals at most sportsbooks range from a high of 11.5 (four teams – Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore) to a low of 4.5 (two teams – Cleveland and New Orleans). Most teams have season win totals in the 7 to 9 range. This means every game is vital to the final outcome since many teams will go over or under their season-win total by just a half a game. Although each season always offers a few surprises, oddsmakers tend to be remarkably accurate with win projections.
General Concepts in Successful Season-Win Totals Betting
1. Lean towards fading public perceptions — We already know the teams which are expected to be good or bad. These perceptions are priced into the win-totals, perhaps too much so. It’s easy to know what a team will look like and how they’ll likely perform in September and October (during the first half of the season). However, in November and December (during the second half of the season) key injuries and other factors will take their toll. In some cases, teams will look nothing like expectations placed on them earlier in the season.
2. “Unders” tend to be smarter bets than “Overs” — Pre-season win totals are based on fully healthy teams with the current roster and coaching staff. That’s subject to change as the season goes along. Injuries, especially to good teams, can be devastating. Consider what would happen if any of the 11.5-win teams (Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore) lost their starting QB. Every team is a tackle away from possible disaster. “Unders” also have a slight numerical advantage overall as evidenced by adding up all the projected wins versus actual possible wins based on number of games, which exceeds the number by about 1 to 2 percent.
3. Avoid wagers with high vig pricing — We sports bettors often fall in love with numbers, but also and bet against bad organizations”underestimate impacts of high vig on the most appealing odds . Some win totals look easy, but then look at the vig prices which can be -150 or much higher. These lay prices are much like a sharp hook hidden behind the tasty bait. Don’t be a fish and get hooked by a high vig number.
4. Strength-of-Schedule is critically important — Any win-total projection must factor in the opponents on the 17-game schedule. Most of last season’s division winners face much tougher games than the last-place finishers. So, consider the challenges of playing multiple tough opponents for consecutive weeks at a time, which is very difficult to overcome in the modern-day NFL. Also, as a general rule, avoid betting “Overs” in divisions with multiple powerhouse teams (NFC North and AFC North both come to mind) because they may beat each other up in interdivisional play. Furthermore, avoid betting “Unders” in divisions with multiple weak teams (NFC South and AFC South both come to mind) because they have easier opponents in their six interdivisional games.
5. Bet on winning organizations and bet against bad organizations — Some teams have winning traditions while others are perpetual losers. Winning attitudes are infectious. Losing mentalities are toxic. The long-term success of great organizations like Kansas City and Pittsburgh are self-evident. Meanwhile, bad organizations like Cleveland and the NY Jets never seem to catch a break. Teams with good front offices, coaching staffs, and deep rosters tend to win those marginal games, whereas losing organizations often appear to be cursed. This isn’t the only factor worth considering, but it must be factored into any season-win wager.
2025-26 NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS (LISTED ALPHABETICALLY)
Note: This is a consensus of all 32 NFL teams and their win projections at multiple sportsbooks entering the pre-season.
- Arizona Cardinals: 8.5
- Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
- Baltimore Ravens: 11.5
- Buffalo Bills: 11.5
- Carolina Panthers: 6.5
- Chicago Bears: 8.5
- Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5
- Cleveland Browns: 4.5
- Dallas Cowboys: 7.5
- Denver Broncos: 9.5
- Detroit Lions: 10.5
- Green Bay Packers: 9.5
- Houston Texans: 9.5
- Indianapolis Colts: 7.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5
- Los Angeles Rams: 9.5
- Miami Dolphins: 8.5
- Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
- New England Patriots: 8.5
- New Orleans Saints: 4.5
- New York Giants: 5.5
- New York Jets: 5.5
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
- San Francisco 49ers: 10.5
- Seattle Seahawks: 8.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5
- Tennessee Titans: 5.5
- Washington Commanders: 9.5
Best Bets to Go “Over”
Green Bay Packers 9.5 wins (-120) — Head coach Matt LaFleur consistently wins throughout his NFL career. He’s enjoyed 5 out of 6 winning seasons since taking over the Packers in 2019, and his teams have won 11 games or more in 4 of his 6 years. Green Bay somehow always seems to stay competitive despite a marginal roster of talent and this win-projection for 2025 looks just a little low at 9.5, especially with the reasonable -120 vig factored in. We expect the Pack can reach 10+ wins or more (which means a win on this wager). It’s very possible the two other top teams in this division — Detroit and Minnesota — could take a step backward, while Chicago never seems to gain traction. Ten or 11 wins appears very likely.
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 wins (-130) — The Raiders have a solid nucleus of talent. Adding a proven head coach and veteran quarterback for the upcoming season won’t be enough to win a tough division. However, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith should get Las Vegas to the 7+ win mark, cashing the “Over” tickets. Seven or perhaps 8 wins looks very achievable.
Tampa Bay Bucs 9.5 wins (-105) — The Buccaneers remain a team that’s perpetually under the public’s radar, which gives value to the “Over.” Tampa Bay plays a weaker-than-average schedule, getting to face softie NFC South foes — Atlanta, New Orleans, and Carolina — twice each. They also play the AFC East, which produced only one winning team in 2024. In fact, Tampa Bay will play against 10 opponents with a losing record last season. An explosive offense with veteran players likely gets the Bucs to 10 wins or higher.
Best Bets to Go “Under”
Detroit Lions 10.5 (-115) — After competing in two consecutive NFC Championship games, the Lions’ window of opportunity may be closing, and fast. This has been a devastating offseason in Detroit. They’ve lost two proven coordinators (including OC Ben Johnson who took over in Chicago). The Lions also lost two solid offensive linemen, including their center who suddenly retired (centers are the most underrated players on the offense). Detroit returns with a very mediocre defense coming off a horrendous final month of last season, which was a unit riddled with injuries. They will face one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, already playing in the tough NFC North and will also play against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay–all before Week 8. The Lions may still be good enough to reach 11 wins or more if absolutely everything goes right, but a decline in production us much more likely to happen.
Arizona Cardinals 8.5 (-110) — The Cardinals consistently underachieve. They rarely win big games. While Arizona got off to a surprisingly good start (they were 6-4 at the bye in 2024), the Cardinals then faded badly down the stretch by going 2-5. Playing in a tough division — versus San Francisco, LA Rams, and Seattle — doesn’t help prospects. It’s been a decade since the Cardinals won the NFC West and they’ve made the playoffs just once in that span. This is all about betting the number (since 7.5 might be worth an “Over” wager) but 8.5 is very appealing to the “Under” given this looks like a mediocre team. Asking this roster and coaching staff with so many question marks to notch 9 wins looks like a stretch.
NY Giants 5.5 (-120) — Here are a few bold predictions….(1) the Giants will be the first to fire their head coach and (2) they will lose at least 13 games. This is a terrible team, probably the worst in the NFL. They’re lost at the QB position, bring in the worst offensive line in the league, and any home field edge has been erased given their dismal record the previous two seasons (6-10 in 2023 and 3-14 in 2024). New Orleans and Cleveland are also expected to be historically bad, but those rosters have skill players. It’s difficult to find much to be optimistic about with this year’s Giants. Another 3-14 season appears very likely.
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Lead image by Africa Studio. Raiders Schedule by Raiders.com. Tampa Bay Buccaneers training camp schedule by bucaneers.com. Raiderette Kylee by Matt Aguirre/Las Vegas Raiders. NFL team logos and images are displayed for informational purposes. No claim of affiliation or endorsement is implied.
Nolan Dalla has been a professional gambler, writer, and casino executive for more than two decades. Since 2012, he’s posted NFL picks with detailed game write-ups at his own website (nolandalla.com) free-of-charge, enjoying 10 winning seasons and 3 losing seasons. His best year was in 2023, when he finished second in the Westgate NFL Super Contest, netting $165,000+ in contest winnings. Dalla resides in Las Vegas and is proud to contribute regularly to “Rounder.” He can be reached directly at: nolandalla@gmail.com
